President John Dramani Mahama’s first State of the Nation Address (SONA) painted a grim picture of a nation in crisis—skyrocketing debt, a shaky energy sector, unresolved infrastructure projects, and mounting youth unemployment.
The President pledged to “fix it,” comparing today’s challenges to the power-outage crisis (dumsor) he tackled a decade ago.
But how accurate are his claims? 3News conducted a detailed fact-check, using data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), Bank of Ghana (BoG), the Ministry of Finance, independent economic analysts, and international agencies to see where the facts stand.
1. Economic Indicators
Claim: Ghana’s inflation hit 23.8% in December 2024, overshooting a targeted 18%.
Verdict: True.
Ghana Statistical Service figures confirm that at the close of 2024, inflation was 23.8%, higher than the authorities’ upper target of around 22%. This points to continued difficulty in stabilising prices.
Claim: The cedi lost 19% of its value against the dollar in 2024, on top of a 27.8% drop in 2023.
Verdict: True.
Bank of Ghana data and multiple market analyses show the cedi did indeed depreciate by roughly 28% in 2023 and a further 18–19% in 2024. That tally matches the President’s figures.
Claim: Public debt stands at GH?721 billion.
Verdict: Largely True.
This figure corresponds to the debt around the start of 2025. Bank of Ghana data show total public debt reached about GH?736.9 billion by Nov 2024?, and was in the ?720–?730bn range at end-2024 (roughly 71% of GDP post-rebasing). Thus, ?721bn is a reasonable estimate of the public debt stock, albeit slightly lower than the last 2024 data point. In any case, Ghana’s debt ballooned dramatically – up from ~?467bn in Sept 2022? – confirming Mahama’s point about an unprecedented debt burden. Debt servicing alone consumes a substantial chunk of the national budget, underscoring the scale of the crisis.
2. Infrastructure and Roads
Claim: 55 major projects stalled due to the debt crisis, freezing about US$2.95 billion in undisbursed funds.
Verdict: Credible.
While the exact count of 55 comes from government records (likely transition audits), the scenario is credible. In fact, the Finance Minister in Jan 2024 acknowledged that many donor-funded infrastructure projects were frozen when Ghana stopped servicing its external loans, and said they would resume once creditors agreed on restructuring?. Major lenders like China and the World Bank paused disbursements pending debt talks?. So, Ghana’s external debt crisis did leave dozens of projects in limbo.
Mahama’s figures (55 projects, $2.95bn financing) haven’t been independently published, but they align with the known scale of Ghana’s stalled capital projects. The GH?15bn cost overrun warning is plausible as idle projects accrue extra costs over time (inflation, contract penalties, etc.).
In sum, it’s true that scores of projects stalled during the debt crisis; government sources confirm widespread halts, though we rely on Mahama’s specific numbers for the precise tally.
Claim: The previous administration claimed to have built 13,000 km of roads, but most were maintenance or rehabilitation rather than brand-new construction.
Verdict: True.
Indeed, former President Akufo-Addo had repeatedly claimed an “unprecedented” 11,000–13,000 km of roads constructed. A fact-check by the new Roads Minister, Kwame Agbodza, revealed that actual newly constructed paved roads from 2017 to 2021 totalled only 673 km, while over 6,185 km were re-gravelling/upgrading of existing roads?.
In other words, the vast majority of the mileage the NPP government touted was maintenance, not brand-new roads. Agbodza’s data (from official records) directly contradicts the 11,000 km claim?.
Mahama’s SONA assertion is thus accurate – the previous government inflated its road achievements by conflating routine repairs with new construction. Mahama’s comment that the 13,000 km figure was inflated aligns with official data.
Claim: 57% of urban roads were in poor condition by 2021, up from 46% in 2015
Verdict: Credible.
While we couldn’t immediately verify those exact percentages from an external publication, they likely come from the Ministry of Roads’ surveys. It’s consistent with the maintenance backlog he cites: as of Dec 2024, unpaid bills to road contractors exceeded GH?20 billion (work done 2018–2024)?, leaving contractors unpaid and works unfinished.
He further revealed outstanding road project commitments of GH?105 billion – an enormous pipeline far beyond current budgets?. These numbers portray a sector in crisis, which is supported by reports of many road projects started but not completed under the previous regime.
3. Energy Sector
Claim: Ghana’s energy sector debt stands at GH?70 billion, despite collecting over GH?45 billion in Energy Sector Levies since 2017.
Verdict: Plausible.
While an exact independent tally isn’t published, the scale is credible. For instance, Mahama revealed ECG alone owes GH?68 billion?. If accurate, that nearly equals the entire sector debt figure – suggesting ECG’s payables (to IPPs and gas suppliers) make up the bulk of it.
We can corroborate pieces of this: as of mid-2023, ECG’s debt to IPPs was about $1.4–1.6 billion (over GH?15 billion) and rising?.
Also, Ghana issued ESLA bonds to refinance legacy energy debts, but new debts accumulated: a 2020 report noted Ghana was importing over $300m of fuel for power annually and had ~$3 billion in sector debt at the time? – which has only grown. By 2023, IPPs were owed $1.58 billion in arrears and actually threatened to shut down power plants due to non-payment?.
Ghana’s energy finances were so strained that IPPs rejecting a debt restructuring in May 2023 put the country at risk of power outages. The cited GH?70bn total likely includes ECG’s GH?68bn liabilities plus debts across other power utilities—consistent with the known scale of the crisis.
Claim: Mahama had solved the dumsor crisis by the start of 2016 and wants to prevent new outages.
Verdict: Accurate Context.
Indeed, Ghana’s 2012–2015 power crisis was effectively ended by late 2015 after new plants (Karpowership, Atuabo gas, etc.) came online.
Independent assessments confirm that load-shedding was largely absent in 2016. Thus, his claim of fixing the crisis holds true. However, huge sector debts and IPP payment arrears remain a threat to stable electricity supply today.
4. Social Policies and Education
Claim: Only 3.4 million students benefitted from Free SHS since 2017, contradicting an earlier figure of 5.1 million by the NPP government.
Verdict: True.
This appears to be a correction of record. The former NPP government had indeed bandied about a cumulative 5.1 million as the number of students enrolled under Free SHS. However, the new Education Minister, Hon. Haruna Iddrisu, has debunked the 5.1 million claim as inflated.
The Education Ministry has acknowledged that the 5.1 million figure likely double-counted students across multiple academic years. A realistic estimate of unique beneficiaries stands at around 3.4 to 3.6 million, which supports Mahama’s correction.
Claim: About two million Ghanaian youth are unemployed.
Verdict: True.
Ghana Statistical Service data reveal an alarmingly high youth unemployment rate, with roughly 1.9–2 million young people not in employment, education, or training. Ghana Statistical Service’s latest labour force survey found that in Q3 2023 about 1.9 million youth (15–35) were not in employment, education or training (NEET)?. The broader unemployment rate for youth was around 33% in 2021 and remains very high (the Africa Report puts youth unemployment at 38.8% in 2023)?
Mahama’s figure reflects official surveys.
5. Governance and Corruption
Claim: 80,000 ghost names were discovered on the National Service Scheme payroll, costing GH?50 million monthly.
Verdict: Correct Range.
Officials confirm that around 81,000 suspected “ghost” personnel were unearthed in a headcount, potentially siphoning off tens of millions of cedis each month
The Finance Ministry had paid arrears to about 98,000 legitimate service personnel, but these additional 81k entries appear to be fake – presumably inserted to siphon funds. Mahama’s estimate of GH?50m monthly loss is plausible: if each “ghost” was claiming roughly ?600–?700 stipend per month, tens of thousands of fake entries would indeed sum into the tens of millions of cedis.
Investigations are ongoing, supporting Mahama’s claims of serious payroll fraud.
Claim: The Sinking Fund (for debt repayment) was left almost empty, with only $64,000 and GH?143 million in its accounts at the end of 2024.
Verdict: Unchallenged.
This claim comes from the official statement of accounts; while we don’t have an external audit of the sinking fund, the Ministry of Finance (even those from the former NPP government) did not refute this upon the transition.
In fact, Ghana’s public coffers were so depleted that it suspended external debt payments in Dec 2022?
While there is no independent audit released publicly yet, no one from the previous administration has disputed Mahama’s figure. The near-zero balance is consistent with Ghana’s debt moratorium and difficulty in servicing loans.
6. Health Sector
Claim: Not a single hospital under the Agenda 111 project is operational, despite US$400 million already disbursed and GH?22 billion more needed.
Verdict: True.
The NPP government set out to build 111 hospitals but fell behind schedule of end-2024. By the change of government, at most 1 hospital was completed (there are reports that one district hospital building was finished but not yet equipped)
Independent checks reveal that while a few sites have partial structures, none is fully functional. An estimated US$1.7 billion (about GH?22 billion) is still required to complete them.
Claim: The government faces potential loss of US$78 million in USAID support for maternal health, malaria, HIV, and other programmes.
Verdict: Validated.
This was a recent development (linked to U.S. global health strategy shifts) and Mahama committed to fill the gap from Ghana’s budget. Verifying this, USAID did announce it was realigning funding, causing concern in Ghana’s health sector. The $78 million figure Mahama gave is in line with what USAID’s portfolio contributes
The Health Ministry confirms that multiple programmes risk disruption if government does not fill the gap.
7. Agriculture and Cocoa
Claim: Ghana’s annual food import bill exceeds US$2 billion, particularly for rice, poultry, and other staples.
Verdict: True.
Staples like rice, sugar, wheat, poultry, and vegetable oil make up the bulk. For instance, Ghana in 2022 imported $2.6 billion in agricultural and related products? . The Peasant Farmers Association of Ghana (PFAG) recently put the food import bill at >$2.5 billion, with over 60% of that on rice, poultry, and sugar?.
So Mahama’s figure (“over $2bn”) is actually somewhat conservative – it might be closer to $2.5bn now – but certainly in the correct range. His point that this is alarming is echoed by economists, as heavy import dependence pressures the cedi and undermines local farmers.
The statement is true and well-documented by trade stats.
Claim: COCOBOD is saddled with GH?32.5 billion in debt, partly from failing to supply over 300,000 tonnes of cocoa sold at lower forward contract prices.
Verdict: Supported by Industry Reports.
Analysts confirm Ghana oversold cocoa at about US$2,600/tonne, missing out on record-high prices near $11,000–$13,000/tonne. COCOBOD now faces massive losses. Mahama calculated that because world cocoa prices had spiked, for each tonne Ghana now delivers (late) on those old contracts, COCOBOD loses about $4,000 in potential revenue?.
Is $4,000/ton plausible? Yes – cocoa prices hit record highs in late 2024. Ghana sold those contracts at ~$2,600, but by end-2024 cocoa futures were trading around $11,000–13,000 per tonne on the New York market?.
Even accounting for a quality differential, the price gap was on the order of $8,000-$10,000 per tonne at peak. In mid-2024, the gap was a bit lower: Reuters in Nov 2024 estimated traders stood to lose $2,500 per ton on those undelivered contracts given then-current prices
From youth unemployment figures to the dismal progress on Agenda 111, President Mahama’s statements largely match independent data. Public debt indeed hovers above GH?720 billion. The Free SHS beneficiary numbers appear inflated under the previous government. Energy sector debts remain staggering, and cocoa shortfalls have cost the country hundreds of millions of dollars in potential revenue.
While some exact figures (like the precise GH?70 billion energy debt total) cannot be perfectly verified in public domain reports, the broad weight of evidence shows Mahama’s claims are firmly grounded in reality. In many cases—such as the ghost names scandal, repeated road construction claims, and oversold cocoa contracts—official sources and audits corroborate the President’s account.
As Ghana awaits a fresh budget presentation and a National Economic Dialogue, the fact-checked data reveals a nation grappling with fiscal pressures and a substantial burden of unfinished projects. Whether President Mahama can truly “fix it,” as he vowed, remains to be seen, but the numbers behind his first SONA in 2025 address hold up under scrutiny.
The post #3Verified Fact-Check: Sorting the facts from fiction in Prez Mahama’s first 2025 SONA first appeared on 3News.
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