Why Ghana must hasten the UAE’s CEPA Programme in 2026

By Seade CAESAR

Ghana enters 2026 in a better economic position than it was a few years ago. Macroeconomic stability has improved, inflationary pressures have eased, and confidence is gradually returning to key sectors of the economy.

But recovery alone is not the finish line. The real policy question now is how Ghana converts stabilization into sustained growth, industrial expansion, and durable job creation.

This is why accelerating negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the United Arab Emirates in 2026 is not just timely, but strategic. Ghana does not need a CEPA because the economy is weak. Ghana needs it because the economy is recovering and must now be repositioned for the next growth phase.

Ghana’s economy is improving but still vulnerable

The current economic trajectory of Ghana reflects hard-won stabilization. Fiscal discipline is improving, external balances are stabilizing, and investor sentiment is gradually recovering. However, the structure of the economy remains vulnerable in three important ways.

Heavy dependence on primary commodity exports

Ghana’s export base is still dominated by a narrow range of primary commodities such as gold, cocoa, and crude oil. While these sectors generate foreign exchange, they expose the economy to global price volatility and external shocks beyond domestic control.

Limited value addition means Ghana captures only a small share of global value chains. As a result, export earnings fluctuate sharply, constraining fiscal planning, weakening foreign exchange stability, and limiting the economy’s ability to sustain long-term growth driven by industrial productivity.

Limited industrial scale and absorption capacity

Although industrial policy initiatives exist, Ghana’s manufacturing sector remains relatively small and fragmented. Many firms operate below optimal scale due to limited access to large, predictable export markets, high production costs, and infrastructure constraints.

This restricts the sector’s ability to absorb the growing labour force, especially youth entering the job market each year. Without stronger external demand and deeper integration into regional and global markets, industrial expansion remains slow, limiting job creation and productivity growth.

Persistent exposure to external financing and FX pressures

Despite recent improvements, Ghana’s macroeconomic stability is still sensitive to foreign exchange inflows from commodities, remittances, and external financing. Any disruption in global markets can quickly translate into currency pressure, higher import costs, and inflationary risks.

A narrow export base and limited services exports weaken foreign exchange buffers. Until Ghana builds more diversified, value-added export streams, the economy remains vulnerable to balance-of-payments stress even during periods of recovery.

These vulnerabilities do not disappear simply because headline indicators improve. They require structural solutions, and trade and investment partnerships are a critical part of that response.

Why timing matters in 2026

The UAE is not negotiating CEPAs in isolation. It is building a global network of preferred trade and investment partners, and Africa is now firmly part of that strategy. Countries that move early gain first-mover advantages in trade corridors, logistics integration, and investor attention.

Ghana’s competitors are already moving. Mauritius and Kenya have operational or signed CEPAs. Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, has signed its agreement in 2026. Each additional agreement strengthens the UAE’s economic footprint in Africa and raises the opportunity cost of delay for countries outside the network.

If Ghana waits too long, capital, logistics routes, and trade volumes will increasingly flow through CEPA-aligned economies. Entering later does not produce the same benefits as entering early.

Why Ghana must hasten the UAE’s CEPA program in 2026

Ghana has strong reasons to move quickly on the UAE’s CEPA program in 2026, especially given where the economy is and how global trade and capital are being re-shaped.

Competition for Gulf capital is intensifying

UAE sovereign and private capital is actively looking for bankable projects in Africa in logistics, energy, agro-processing, aviation, and industrial parks. CEPA countries enjoy a credibility advantage. Hastening negotiations signals policy readiness and reduces investor uncertainty, which matters when capital is choosing between multiple African destinations.

Industrialization goals need external market pull

Ghana’s industrial strategy, including agro-processing and light manufacturing, needs scale. Domestic demand alone is not enough. Preferential access to the UAE market creates the demand pull that justifies factory expansion, technology upgrades, and job creation. Delay weakens this momentum.

Strategic timing with global supply-chain shifts

Global firms are re-shaping supply chains toward resilience and diversification. The UAE sits at the center of these new routes. A 2026 CEPA positions Ghana early in emerging trade corridors linking Africa, the Gulf, and Asia. Waiting means reacting later from a weaker negotiating position.

Services, logistics, and aviation gains are time-sensitive

The UAE’s strengths are not only in goods trade but in logistics, ports, air cargo, finance, and services. Early movers gain faster integration into these systems. For Ghana, this supports ambitions to become a West African production and distribution hub.

Stronger bargaining power now than later

Negotiating earlier allows Ghana to shape safeguard clauses, phased liberalization, and industrial protections that align with national priorities. Once regional competitors lock in terms, late entrants often face narrower options.

How A UAE-Ghana CEPA would strengthen Ghana’s economy

Supporting the shift from recovery to industrial growth

Ghana’s next growth phase must be led by industry, not consumption or raw commodity exports. A CEPA creates guaranteed external demand by opening preferential access to the UAE market, which also serves as a major re-export hub to Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

This demand pull is essential for Ghanaian manufacturers. It justifies investments in machinery, standards compliance, packaging, and skills. Without large, predictable markets, industrial expansion remains slow and risky.

Attracting long-term investment, not short-term capital

The UAE brings a distinct advantage: patient capital linked to logistics, energy, aviation, and industrial infrastructure. A CEPA reduces policy uncertainty and signals seriousness to UAE investors looking for long-term partnerships rather than speculative returns.

For Ghana, this translates into investment in industrial parks, agro-processing zones, renewable energy, port and airport logistics, and downstream manufacturing. These investments raise productivity and expand the tax base over time.

Strengthening foreign exchange resilience

Even as the economy improves, Ghana remains sensitive to foreign exchange pressures. Export diversification through value-added goods is the most sustainable solution. A CEPA helps Ghana diversify export destinations and products.

Increased manufacturing exports and services earnings improve foreign exchange inflows and reduce reliance on a narrow set of commodities. This strengthens macroeconomic stability and supports a more predictable exchange rate environment.

Integrating Ghana into global supply chains

The UAE sits at the center of global logistics networks. Its ports, airlines, and trade finance systems connect Africa to Asia, Europe, and beyond. Early CEPA alignment allows Ghanaian firms to integrate into these supply chains faster, lowering shipping times, reducing costs, and improving reliability. Over time, this supports Ghana’s ambition to become a West African production and distribution hub.

Expanding opportunities for SMEs and job creation

Small and medium-sized enterprises account for a large share of employment in Ghana. CEPAs that include trade facilitation, standards cooperation, and services access reduce barriers that typically exclude SMEs from international markets.

As SMEs plug into UAE-linked supply chains, they scale up operations, formalize, and create jobs. This is particularly important for youth employment, which remains one of Ghana’s most pressing development challenges.

Leveraging green and climate-smart growth

The UAE has positioned itself as a major player in renewable energy and climate finance. A CEPA framework makes it easier to channel this capital into Ghana’s industrial and energy transition. Cleaner power for industry reduces long-term production costs, improves competitiveness, and aligns growth with environmental sustainability. This matters for export competitiveness in a world where climate standards are becoming stricter.

Why delay would be costly

Delaying a CEPA does not preserve policy space indefinitely. Instead, it risks three outcomes. Ghana may lose early investor interest to CEPA-aligned competitors. It may face weaker bargaining power later as regional benchmarks become fixed. And it may miss the opportunity to shape safeguard clauses and phased liberalization in ways that protect infant industries.

Loss of early investor interest to CEPA-aligned competitors

When Ghana delays, UAE-linked investors do not wait. Capital seeking opportunities in logistics, energy, agro-processing, and industrial parks will flow to countries already covered by CEPAs, where rules are clearer and risks are lower.

Once supply chains, port routes, and anchor investments are established elsewhere, redirecting them becomes costly. Ghana then competes not on potential, but on incentives, often offering deeper concessions to regain attention it could have secured earlier through timely alignment.

Weaker bargaining power as regional benchmarks become fixed

Early movers help set the template. As more African countries sign CEPAs with the UAE, common standards on tariffs, services, investment protections, and safeguards emerge. Late entrants face a narrower negotiating space, with less flexibility to tailor provisions to domestic industrial priorities.

Ghana risks inheriting terms shaped by others’ interests rather than co-defining them. Acting sooner allows Ghana to negotiate phased liberalization, targeted protections, and implementation timelines that better support local industry.

Missed opportunity to embed safeguards during economic recovery

Negotiating during a period of improving macroeconomic stability gives Ghana leverage. Delay means reforms may later be negotiated under pressure, when fiscal or external conditions tighten again.

That weakens Ghana’s ability to insist on safeguard clauses, adjustment support, and sequencing that protects infant industries. Moving now allows policymakers to design transition periods, capacity-building measures, and review mechanisms that cushion local firms while they scale, rather than exposing them abruptly to competition.

In contrast, moving now allows Ghana to negotiate from a position of relative economic stability and confidence.

A strategic choice, not a rushed decision

Hastening the UAE CEPA program in 2026 does not mean signing a poorly designed agreement. It means prioritizing negotiations, aligning them with national industrial policy, and ensuring strong implementation capacity. Ghana’s economy is doing better. That is precisely why this moment matters.

A UAE-Ghana CEPA can help transform recovery into sustained industrial growth, deeper export diversification, stronger foreign exchange resilience, and long-term development. The window is open. The strategic decision is whether Ghana steps through it now or watches others do so first.

Seade is the Executive Director,Africa Global Policy and Advisory Institute

[email protected]

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