Global InfoAnalytics Poll: Mahama leads Bawumia with 51.1% ahead of December elections

A recent poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics has placed John Dramani Mahama, the presidential candidate for the National Democratic Congress (NDC), in the lead with 51.1% of the vote as the December 2024 elections approach.

His closest contender, Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), follows with 37.3%. Independent candidates Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako trail at 4.1% and 6.2% respectively, with other candidates accounting for 1.3% of the vote, according to the poll’s weighted committed voters' model.

When the unweighted likely voters' model is applied, Mahama retains a 49.3% share, while Bawumia stands at 35.9%. Kyerematen and Bediako maintain similar levels of support at 3.9% and 6.0%, while 1.4% of voters support other candidates, and 3.5% remain undecided. The data suggests that a runoff election is unlikely, with average polling data showing Mahama ahead at 53%, Bawumia at 36%, Kyerematen at 7%, Bediako at 3%, and others at 1%.

The survey highlights voter apathy as a key challenge for the ruling NPP, with 16% of its supporters indicating they will not vote, compared to only 3% from the NDC. Additionally, 38% of floating voters, 4% of voters from other parties, and 39% of respondents who declined to disclose their affiliations plan to abstain, contributing to 4.4% of the overall voter base expressing non-participation.

Mahama’s lead is particularly pronounced among floating voters, where he holds a 31-point advantage over Bawumia (54% to 23%). Among voters who have not disclosed their party affiliations, Mahama also leads by 18 points. Among first-time voters, Mahama enjoys a 46% to 38% lead over Bawumia, an improvement from their previously tied standings in July 2024.

However, Bawumia’s campaign faces challenges, notably a 4% drop in support among Muslim voters between July and October 2024, a key demographic for the Vice President. This decline raises concerns about his ability to maintain support from this group.

In terms of loyalty, 70% of voters who backed President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020 remain aligned with Bawumia, while 19% have shifted their support to Mahama. Meanwhile, 5% of these voters are now supporting Kyerematen and Bediako, reflecting some fragmentation within the NPP's base.

Regionally, Mahama has expanded his lead to twelve regions, including Greater Accra, Central, Western, Western North, Bono, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Oti, and Volta. Bawumia remains dominant in Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East. In Bono, Mahama’s gains are attributed to increased support for both him and Kyerematen. The NPP is striving to meet its goal of 85% support in the Ashanti region, where Bawumia currently holds 66%, compared to Mahama’s 22%, Kyerematen’s 4%, and Bediako’s 7%.

Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako are also making significant inroads in the Eastern and Ashanti regions, further eroding Bawumia’s support. Mahama is outperforming his party’s parliamentary candidates in 56 of the 111 constituencies surveyed, while Bawumia is trailing behind his candidates in 79 constituencies, signalling a potential shift in voter sentiment.

“Nana Bediako and Alan Kyerematen are also surging in the Eastern region, as the duo now share 19% of the votes, DMB on 42%, and JDM 36%, with others at 2%,” the poll reveals. “JDM is outperforming his parliamentary candidates in 56 out of 111 constituencies and trailing in 55. Dr Bawumia is outperforming his parliamentary candidates in 32 constituencies but trailing in 79, further indicating the impact Alan and Bediako could have on the ruling party’s chances in the December elections.”

Economic conditions, jobs, and education remain top concerns for voters, as “70% of the issues cited as important were the economy, followed by jobs (62%) and education (48%).” Current economic conditions are expected to significantly influence the December elections, cited by 55% of respondents. Past political performance (40%), candidate credibility (34%), party manifestos (28%), the fight against illegal mining (galamsey) (9%), and other factors (8%) also play a role.

“On manifestos, the NDC's is favoured by a margin of 14 points compared to the NPP’s, which has a net favourability rating of 6 points,” the survey noted. When asked about the direction of the country, 62% believe Ghana is heading in the wrong direction, while 31% said it is going in the right direction, with 7% undecided. A majority of voters, except for NPP supporters, view the country as on the wrong track, with 88% of NDC voters, 74% of floating voters, 76% of voters from other parties, and 65% of those who did not disclose their affiliations expressing this sentiment.

Regarding the current administration, “36% of voters approve of the president’s job performance, 59% disapprove, and 4% have no opinion. Additionally, 49% of voters rate the governing party’s overall performance as poor/very poor, 30% as good/very good, 9% as excellent, and 12% as average,” the survey concluded.

The Global InfoAnalytics poll suggests that John Dramani Mahama is on course to secure a first-round victory in the December 2024 elections, with a significant lead over Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia. Mahama’s strong performance, particularly among floating voters and first-time voters, combined with Bawumia’s declining support in key demographics, signals a challenging path ahead for the NPP. As the election nears, issues such as the economy, jobs, and education are set to dominate the discourse, with voter apathy posing a further obstacle to the ruling party's chances.

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