CERPA assesses Ghana’s 2025 Mid-Year Budget Review: Stabilisation achieved, but can it be sustained?

The Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis (CERPA) has reviewed the Minister for Finance’s 2025 Mid-Year Budget Statement presented to Parliament on July 24, 2025. The review acknowledges Ghana’s encouraging fiscal turnaround and improved macroeconomic indicators while urging a deeper focus on structural reforms, development spending, and policy execution in the months ahead.

The Mid-Year Review highlights Ghana’s progress toward fiscal consolidation and debt sustainability. Key achievements include improved domestic revenue performance, declining inflation, a strengthening cedi, and significant reduction in public debt stock.

CERPA’s Highlights:

• Real GDP growth rose to 5.3% in Q1 2025, above the 4.9% in Q1 2024, driven largely by strong non-oil growth of 6.8%.
• The cedi appreciated by 42.6% against the US dollar year-on-year, reversing sharp depreciation trends in 2024.
• Inflation dropped from 23.8% in December 2024 to 13.7% by June 2025.
• Ghana’s public debt declined from GHS 726.7 billion to GHS 613 billion, reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio from 61.8% to 43.8%.

However, CERPA notes that total revenue and grants fell short of target (GHS 99.3 billion vs. GHS 102.6 billion), and capital expenditure dropped significantly, reaching only GHS 7.1 billion against a target of GHS 18.1 billion. This shortfall threatens momentum in infrastructure and job creation.

On debt management, CERPA recognises the positive gains from the appreciation of the cedi and the impact of debt restructuring. However, it calls for the government to outline a clear post-debt restructuring strategy and long-term debt management framework.

CERPA’s Policy Recommendations:

• Sustain momentum in revenue mobilisation, particularly from non-oil tax sources.
• Reprioritise capital expenditure to support infrastructure and employment.
• Develop a comprehensive exit strategy for the debt restructuring programme.
• Improve execution of key programmes such as the Ghana Gold Board reforms, the 24-hour economy, and the One Million Coders initiative.
• Ensure that the Ghana Medical Trust Fund operates transparently and complies with fiscal responsibility requirements.

CERPA commends the government’s measured approach in revising fiscal targets and achieving macroeconomic gains, but cautions against complacency. The second half of the year presents an opportunity to consolidate progress, address implementation gaps, and reinforce institutional accountability.

Read the full review here

About CERPA

The Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis (CERPA) is an independent, Ghana-based think tank committed to producing policy-relevant economic research and actionable insights that support inclusive and sustainable development.

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