Trump or Harris? How US presidential elections could affect African countries

As US citizens head to the polls to elect their next president, the world watches closely, aware that the outcome carries far-reaching implications across the globe, including Africa. Many Americans have already cast their votes, with others doing so today, choosing between former Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris—candidates with starkly different approaches to both national and global issues.

Trump and Harris Have Already Set the Tone

Although neither candidate has focused heavily on US-Africa relations, their positions are clear. During his presidency, Trump sparked controversy by referring to some African nations as “shithole countries”. Notably, he never visited any African country while in office.

In contrast, Harris has visited Ghana, Zambia, and Tanzania as Vice President, discussing “the power of partnership” with African countries and highlighting significant investment opportunities.

Economy and Security: Key Priorities for African Countries

Priyal Singh, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, argues that while Africa remains a secondary priority in US foreign policy, the election outcome will still impact African nations. According to Singh, two issues—economic development and security—are top priorities for most African countries: “I think for many countries in the Sahel, at the Horn of Africa, in North Africa, across the Great Lakes region, security is a major concern. They would want the United States to play a more proactive role in helping them achieve more stable and secure societies.”

For other African countries, Singh notes, economic development is paramount, with hopes for an expansion of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

More Certainty Under Kamala Harris

The African Growth and Opportunity Act—a programme that provides eligible countries in the region with tariff-free access to US markets—expires in 2025, and the next administration will decide on its renewal. It is uncertain whether either administration would extend AGOA, but Singh believes that with Harris, “there would be a greater degree of foreign policy certainty, because Harris is seen as more or less continuing the general foreign policy direction established under Biden. This continuity would likely be welcomed by African nations.”

The Biden-Harris administration formalised the 2022 Strategy toward Sub-Saharan Africa, which, along with the administration’s 2022 National Security Strategy, set goals for further investment in Africa’s larger states, such as Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa, while also strengthening ties with medium and smaller states. Singh notes that under Harris, “many of the principles that were established under the Biden administration over the last four years in prioritising or trying to reprioritise Africa would continue.”

Trump Represents a Wild Card

In contrast, Singh believes that African countries view Donald Trump with greater concern because Trump “represents a bit of a wild card, and he is associated with a greater level of uncertainty and unpredictability in general.”

During his administration from 2017 to 2021, relations between the US and many African nations soured, and Africa was further deprioritised. However, Singh suggests that certain countries might benefit under a Trump administration due to their strategic locations, particularly where US military bases are established, potentially resulting in increased investment.

Africa’s Role in US Foreign Policy

How much influence either candidate, if elected, will ultimately have on African countries remains uncertain. In the broader context of US foreign policy, however, Africa is likely to remain a secondary focus.

Harris offers a degree of continuity and predictability that may be welcomed by African leaders, while Trump brings a level of unpredictability, despite his previous experience as president.

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