Parliamentary seats declared vacant: 4 major impacts of Bagbin's decision

In a dramatic turn within Ghana's hung parliament, Speaker Alban Bagbin declared four seats vacant on Thursday, 17 October, following a petition from the National Democratic Congress (NDC) minority caucus.

This decision shifts the balance of power, giving the NDC a majority with 136 Members of Parliament, while the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) now holds 135 seats.

Impact on parliamentary leadership

This change has major consequences for parliamentary leadership. Afenyo Markin, who led the NPP majority, now sees his party become the minority, while Ato Forson's NDC faction takes the majority role. As a result, Joseph Osei Owusu, the former first deputy speaker, will have to vacate his position. The NDC is expected to nominate a new first deputy speaker, while the NPP minority is likely to push for Owusu to become the second deputy speaker, a role previously held by independent MP Andrew Amoako Asiamah from Fomena.

The affected seats

The four vacant seats include:

• Cynthia Morrison, NPP MP for Agona West (Central Region), who has filed to run as an independent candidate.
• Kwadwo Asante, NPP MP for Suhum (Eastern Region), who has also filed to run as an independent.
• Andrew Amoako Asiamah, the independent MP for Fomena (Ashanti Region), who plans to contest the next election under the NPP.
• Peter Kwakye-Ackah, NDC MP for Amenfi Central.

Constitutional basis for the ruling

The Speaker’s decision is based on Article 97(1)(g) of the Constitution, which requires MPs to vacate their seats if they leave the party under which they were elected or run as independents. This ruling followed an official request from Haruna Iddrisu, a senior NDC MP, after intense debate between the NPP and NDC.

Implications for parliament

With the NDC now holding a majority, the party is well-positioned to drive key legislative changes. Several developments are expected:

1. Legislative agenda control: The NDC's majority enables them to prioritise bills aligned with their policy goals, especially in health, education, and infrastructure.
2. Increased accountability: The NDC may use their position to hold the NPP accountable for its past policies, fostering a more vibrant democratic process.
3. Committee leadership changes: The NDC can now appoint committee chairs, potentially steering investigations and influencing the examination of government actions.
4. Coalition building: The NDC may seek alliances with smaller parties or independents to solidify its majority, leading to possible compromises on key policy issues.
5. Impact on governance: The NDC’s majority could challenge the executive branch if there is a clash in agendas, possibly resulting in legislative gridlock and slowing government progress.
6. Public engagement and perception: The NDC's ability to implement successful reforms could boost public perception of their leadership, while any failures may lead to dissatisfaction and influence future elections.

Changes in parliamentary leadership

This shift in power has triggered changes in the leadership structure:

1. First deputy speaker: With the NPP now the minority, Joseph Osei Owusu will no longer serve as first deputy speaker. The NDC is expected to nominate a replacement, which will be key in ensuring smooth parliamentary procedures and aligning with NDC priorities.
2. Second deputy speaker: The NPP minority is likely to back Joseph Osei Owusu for the second deputy speaker role, which was previously held by Andrew Amoako Asiamah. This position will be crucial for managing parliamentary proceedings and maintaining balance within the speaker's office.

Impact on parliamentary dynamics

The new leadership dynamics will influence how Parliament operates. With control over the first deputy speaker position, the NDC will have more authority to guide debates and shape the legislative agenda. The leadership style of the new first deputy speaker will also matter; it could either foster collaboration or fuel confrontational discussions between the NDC4 and NPP.

Public perception of leadership

Leadership changes often affect public perception. If the NDC uses its majority to pass legislation that resonates with the public, it could strengthen its credibility. Conversely, inefficiencies or failures could damage the reputations of both the NDC and NPP, with implications for future electoral outcomes.

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