Battle for Tema East Constituency: Can the NPP reclaim its dominance in 2024?

As Ghana approaches the 2024 general elections, Tema East, a key fishing community and industrial hub, is emerging as a critical battleground.

The constituency, known for its diverse population and economic significance, has historically oscillated between the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC).

With both parties vying for dominance, the outcome in Tema East could serve as a bellwether for the national election.

Tema city

Located on the coastal belt, it is one of the two constituencies under the Tema Metropolitan Assembly (TMA). It covers Tema Manhean and Tema Community One and hosts the Tema Port and several industries, including the Pioneer Food Cannery Limited (PFC), Volta Aluminium Company (VALCO), Sentuo Oil Refinery, Tema Fishing Harbour, Tema Lube Oil Company Limited (TLOC), Mankoadze Fisheries, among others.

It is also a commercial centre and a fishing hub of artisanal, semi-industrial and industrial fishing vessels.

The constituency also hosts the Meridian Line monument located on the premises of the Presbyterian Church of Ghana, Greenwich Congregation, in Community One, where the Greenwich Meridian line runs southward to meet the Equator in the ocean.

The Eastern Naval Command of the Ghana Armed Forces, which is next to the Chemu Lagoon, can also be found in the constituency. Tema Manhean is linked to Community One by one major road.

The only alternative route through the Manhean cemetery, via VALCO, is currently in bad shape, and residents have called for its reconstruction to improve mobility for road users.

The constituency has formal and informal workers, including factory hands, fishermen, fish processors, teachers, civil and public servants, health workers, traders and commercial drivers.

Fishing is the main occupation in the constituency and a visit to the Landing Beach at Manhean would reveal several canoes docked at the wharf. In recent times, several fishermen have bemoaned what they termed as the insufficient and irregular supply of premix fuel, which was sold at subsidised prices.

Historical context

Tema East has not consistently aligned with any one party over the years, making it a true swing constituency.

In the 2012 elections, the NPP won the seat, but the NDC reclaimed it in 2020 with Isaac Ashai Odamtten as the MP.

This back-and-forth reflects the constituency's unique demographics, which include a significant number of fishermen, industrial workers, and small business owners.

NPP's strengths: Infrastructure and economic policies

The NPP has built a reputation in Tema East for advancing infrastructure projects and implementing economic policies that appeal to the middle class and business owners.

The party's promise to improve the fishing industry by providing modern equipment, better storage facilities, and access to international markets has resonated well with the local fishing community.

Additionally, the NPP's focus on industrial growth and job creation aligns with the aspirations of many residents in this industrial city.

NDC's appeal: Social programmes and grassroots support

On the other hand, the NDC has traditionally garnered support in Tema East by emphasising social welfare programs and maintaining strong grassroots connections.

The party's policies on education, healthcare, and social services have been popular among the working-class population, particularly in the fishing community, which often feels neglected by broader economic policies.

The NDC's candidate, who has yet to be officially announced, is likely to focus on these areas, promising to expand social services and provide more direct support to the fishing industry.

The party will likely capitalise on any perceived shortcomings of the NPP government, particularly in managing the economy and addressing the needs of lower-income residents.

Key Issues: Economy, infrastructure, and social welfare

The 2024 election in Tema East will likely hinge on a few key issues: the state of the local economy, the effectiveness of infrastructure development, and the adequacy of social welfare programs.

Both parties will need to address the concerns of fishermen struggling with declining fish stocks and rising costs, industrial workers seeking job security and better wages, and small business owners looking for supportive policies.

Additionally, the rising cost of living, particularly the prices of fuel and food, will play a significant role in shaping voter sentiment.

The party that can present a credible plan to mitigate these economic pressures will have a distinct advantage.

Parliamentary trends

Tema East has always been an interesting constituency when it comes to party politics. In 1992, Erasmus Aruna Quao of the National Convention Party (NCP), won the parliamentary seat.

Since 1996, the NPP has won the seat six times, leaving the NDC with one victory in 2020, while the defunct NCP won the parliamentary seat in 1992. In 1996, the NPP, with the late Ishmael Ashitey as its candidate, garnered 48.2 per cent of the votes to defeat NDC’s Nii Adjei Larbie, who had 43.1 per cent of the votes.

Ishmael Ashitey retained the parliamentary seat in 2000 after securing 48.1 per cent of the votes as against NDC's Ebenezer Anuwa-Amarh’s 29.6 per cent of the total votes cast.

Ishmael Ashitey got the nod for the third time in 2004, this time recording 48.1 per cent of the votes as opposed to NDC’s Emelia Kai Adjei’s 31.6 of the votes.

The NPP then transferred the baton to Samuel Evans Ashong Narh in the 2008 polls and he obtained 49.4 per cent of the votes, while the NDC’s Robert Kempes Papa Nii Ofosuware did 40.3 per cent.

Then came the famous 2012 elections which pitted NPP’s Daniel Nii Kwartei Titus Glover against NDC's Robert Kempes Papa Nii Ofosuware, then MCE for Tema. In that contest, which happens to be the closest election fought between the two parties in the constituency, Titus Glover defeated Kempes with just three votes.

In 2016, however, Titus Glover secured a renewed mandate when he stretched the margin to 4,125 votes against his old rival.

In 2020, another former MCE for Tema, Isaac Ashai Odamtten, gained political independence for the NDC when he polled 41,663 votes, representing 55.9 per cent of the votes cast, to defeatTitus Glover, who had 32, 320 votes, representing 43.4 per cent.

The outcome of that election, some election watchers in the constituency believed, hinged on the last-minute arrest of the NDC parliamentary candidate; Isaac Ashai Odamtten, for failing to meet a bail condition he was given by an Accra court on counts of alleged embezzlement, while he was the MCE for Tema.

For them, the arrest, detention and release less than five days before the 2020 elections earned some sympathy votes for the NDC although some NDC faithful in the constituency objected to that, insisting that the works of Mr Odamtten as a former MCE did the trick for the party.

Presidential elections

In the presidential elections, the trend indicates that since 1992 the NPP has won the constituency five times, leaving the NDC with three victories in 1992, 2012 and 2020.

In 1996, candidate J.A. Kufuor of the NPP had 50.7 per cent, while Jerry John Rawlings secured 47.0 per cent.

Kufuor maintained the momentum, garnering 63. 5 per cent in the 2000 election, while NDC’s John Evans Mills did 31.9 per cent. The recently constructed Manhean District Police Headquarters operationalised during the tenure of the NPP government.

The recently constructed Manhean District Police Headquarters operationalised during the tenure of the NPP government.

The NPP repeated the feat in 2004 when J.A. Kufuor got 61.7 per cent as against NDC’s 36. 6 per cent. Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo maintained the NPP's hold of Tema East when he won the 2008 elections with 53.4 per cent, while NDC ended the polls with 44. 2 per cent.

The trend, however, changed in favour of the NDC in 2012 with John Mahama polling 50.7 per cent of the votes, while the NPP did 48.4 per cent. But the tables turned in 2016 when NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo regained the hold on the constituency with 54.9 per cent as against the NDC’s 44.4 per cent.

The NDC's John Mahama made a good showing in 2020, winning the race in the constituency with 51.2 per cent as opposed to NPP’s Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo's 47.8 per cent of the votes.

With the NDC presenting John Mahama and NPP parading Dr Mahamudu Bawumia on December 7, 2024, will the NPP entrench its dominance over the Tema East Constituency or the NDC is going to spring a surprise?

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