IMF Board likely to approve Ghana’s 5th review by Dec. – IC Research

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is likely to grant board approval for the fifth review of Ghana’s bailout programme in December 2025, IC Research has projected.

This development follows a staff-level agreement reached between the Government of Ghana and the IMF mission in October 2023, with the authorities meeting all six quantitative performance criteria and four indicative targets for the period ending June 2025.

Board approval would trigger a disbursement of US$385 million from the Fund, bolstering Ghana’s forex reserves ahead of the January 2026 Eurobond debt service, estimated at US$689 million.

IC Research noted that the IMF adopted a notably more optimistic tone in the fifth review compared to the gradually softer language used during the first four reviews.

“We took a closer view of the language adopted by the Fund at the end of the fifth review and inferred a more positive and tangibly confident assessment of the latest performance and near-term economic prospects. The Fund described the authorities’ actions to support financial sector stability as ‘strong,’ while indicating that the authorities made ‘notable strides’ in addressing longstanding challenges in the energy sector,” the research firm stated.

The IMF also concluded that macroeconomic stabilization is taking root, with inflation expected to remain within the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target range of 8.0% ±2.0%, allowing for gradual monetary policy normalization.

“In our view, this indicates the Fund’s confidence in the durability of Ghana’s disinflation trend and support for the Central Bank’s cautious pivot towards policy rate cuts,” IC Research added.

Looking ahead, the IMF expressed its expectation for positive momentum to continue into 2026. This outlook contrasts sharply with the assessments during the first four reviews, which progressively softened—from “strong” in the first review to “generally strong” in the second, “generally satisfactory” in the third, and culminating in a “marked deterioration” in the fourth review, when most indicators deviated from targets.

The more upbeat tone of the fifth review is expected to facilitate a relatively smooth and favorable consideration by the IMF Executive Board in December 2025, enabling the disbursement of US$385 million to support budget operations and balance of payments.

This support is anticipated to enhance Ghana’s net international reserves, which stood at US$8.4 billion in August 2025—equivalent to 3.6 months of import cover, surpassing the programme target of three months by 2026.

By Times Reporter

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