2025 Budget: Finance Minister Used Voodoo Numbers – Minority

Dr. Mohammed Amin Adam and other members of the Minority

 

The Minority in Parliament has accused the government of employing questionable fiscal calculations to paint a dire picture of the economy and discredit the previous administration.

According to them, the recent budget presentation by the Finance Minister, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, has included GH¢49.2 billion in “unreleased claims” without proper verification or auditing.

Addressing the media in Parliament, the Minority, led by former Finance Minister, Dr. Mohammed Amin Adam, expressed concern over the government’s approach to fiscal calculations.

The Minority said these figures were inserted into the fiscal framework without undergoing the necessary scrutiny, as admitted by the Finance Minister himself in paragraph 135 of his speech under the 2025 expenditure measures.

“While we do not doubt the possibility of accumulating some arrears between end-2022 and end-2024 given our own peculiar liquidity constraints, including outstanding expenditure claims gathered from MDAs, we are very surprised that this was done without first undertaking the correct verification or audit of the numbers,” the Minority stated.

They argued that the move distorts the actual fiscal performance of the government, creating a misleading impression that the entire GH¢49.2 billion expenditure claims were generated solely in 2024.

Dr. Adam asserted that this inclusion is not just an erroneous addition of expenditures alien to the fiscal framework but also a demonstration of a lack of understanding of its mechanics.

 

Fiscal Framework Distortion

The Minority further explained that the fiscal framework is centred on central government operations, and any unverified claims could introduce elements of general government accounting, which distorts accurate fiscal reporting.

“A classic example is the Controller and Accountant General’s final accounts, which serve as one of the sources of information for the fiscal framework but are based on general government accounting.

“If you take the information from it at face value and plug it into the fiscal framework, you will be reporting on two very distinct items. What we usually do is work through the numbers and pick the central government expenditures only. This can only be done through verifications and auditing,” the Minority emphasised.

They also criticised the Finance Minister for presenting a budget that relies on unverified claims to determine the country’s fiscal deficit and primary deficit on a commitment basis. They stated that it was irresponsible for the minister to use unaudited figures to justify economic challenges.

 

Compliance With IMF Standards

The Minority also raised an alarm about the implications of these fiscal miscalculations on Ghana’s compliance with the ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.

They cited the IMF’s technical memorandum, which explicitly defines how to derive the primary balance, emphasising that the government’s inclusion of “unreleased claims” does not align with this methodology.

“What the government has put together as ‘unreleased claims’ of GH¢49.2 billion cannot fit into this definition because they are not reported in the GIFMIS.

“Also, whilst the technical memorandum provides that the payables must be ‘cumulative from the beginning of the fiscal year,’ those claims are multi-year claims. They are also not related to statutory funds and energy payments. The government must therefore explain how they came by the methodology used in computing the fiscal balances.

“We are really lost as to how they derived the fiscal balances without fully applying the methodology agreed upon with the IMF in the technical memorandum,” the Minority stated.

 

Potential Consequences

The Minority expressed deep concern over the Finance Minister’s public assertion that Ghana had breached its IMF programme, even before an official review by the Fund in April 2025.

They warned that such premature declarations could have severe financial and economic repercussions.

“What is even more concerning is the Minister proudly declaring to the world, based on the voodoo computations he has done, that his country has breached the IMF programme when the evidence is to the contrary and when the IMF itself is yet to conduct a review of programme implementation in April 2025.

“How can the Minister of Finance publicly wish for his country to derail an IMF programme even before the IMF conducts a review?” they queried.

The Minority cautioned that any failure in the IMF review due to these questionable fiscal calculations could result in Ghana losing access to crucial financial support, including $720 million from the IMF and $600 million from the World Bank.

They also noted that such a failure could reverse the country’s hard-won debt restructuring achievements, which have led to nearly $4 billion in outright debt cancellation and an additional $7.5 billion in debt service relief.

“Do they even know that when all these happen, Ghana will be brought back to unsustainable debt levels and occasion an economic crisis? How will they fund the programs outlined in the budget? How about investor credibility?” the Minority questioned.

 

By Ernest Kofi Adu, Parliament House

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