Share prices of dominant stocks rally GSE in Q1

By Joshua AMLANU & Ebenezer NJOKU

Trading on the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) in the first quarter of 2025 was characterised by a sharp drop in volumes but a significant increase in value traded, as investors shifted capital into higher-priced equities.

This trend was driven largely by the performance of a few dominant stocks in the financial, telecom, energy and consumer goods sectors.

According to GSE’s March 2025 Equities Market Report, total number of shares traded in the quarter was 61.3 million – representing a 75.87 percent decline compared to 254.2 million shares in the same period of 2024.

Despite the lower activity, value of trades rose to GH¢473.2million; a 29.28 percent increase year-on-year.

This divergence reflects a broader shift in investor strategy. Market participants are focusing more on quality stocks with stronger fundamentals rather than on speculative high-volume trades. Analysts say this marks a transition in GSE’s development, with valuation taking priority over volume.

Speaking to the trend, Kofi Kyei Busia – a market analyst with the Young Investors Network (YIN) explained: “The higher the share price the more it contributes to value, even with lower volumes. Let me give you some exact figures – we have a report I can share. As of March 2025, Gold ETFs topped the chart in terms of value traded – about GH¢139million, which represented roughly 9 percent of total value traded. MTN followed with GH¢46.9million, then came Access Bank which accounted for about 4.8 percent”.

He added that, by volume, MTN led with 14.8 million shares traded, followed by CAL Bank with 2.6 million, ETI with 2.3 million and Access Bank with about 600,000 shares.

“Interestingly, despite the relatively lower volume, Access Bank still ranked in the top-three by value because of its higher share price,” Busia noted.

The GSE Financial Stock Index (GSE-FSI) gained 28.5 percent in the quarter, slightly ahead of the GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) which climbed 27.19 percent.

The financial sector’s strong performance was led by a few standout banks. CAL Bank and Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) recorded triple-digit share price increases, driven by improved 2024 earnings and positive guidance for 2025. Access Bank and SIC Insurance also posted strong double-digit gains.

MTN Ghana, the most capitalised stock on the exchange, maintained its place as a key driver of trade value. Although total volumes were lower compared to previous quarters, MTN’s consistent dividend payouts and expansion into fintech have sustained investor interest. The telecom giant led the market in volume traded and was second in terms of value traded during the quarter.

Energy stock TotalEnergies also performed strongly, posting a share price gain of 83.54 percent. It remained one of the key contributors to market value despite limited trading volumes.

In the consumer goods sector, Fan Milk and Guinness Ghana saw renewed interest. Both companies benefitted from internal operational changes and export expansion strategies. Although their trading volumes were modest, the higher share prices of these stocks made them significant contributors to overall market value.

In March alone, GSE recorded 22 million shares traded – an 89.48 percent drop from the 208.7 million shares recorded in March 2024. The value of trades for the month stood at          GH¢201.9million, down 35.59 percent year-on-year. This pattern continued the quarterly trend of lower volume but higher value activity.

Average daily trading volume for the first quarter dropped to 1.02 million shares, compared to 4.09 million in Q1 2024. However, average daily value traded increased to GH¢7.89million. The data suggest that even though fewer shares are changing hands, those that do are of higher market value.

Market capitalisation reached GH¢136.99billion at the end of March 2025, up 23.03 percent since start of the year. Domestic market capitalisation increased by 26.98 percent to           GH¢78.57billion, driven by gains in large-cap domestic stocks.

An additional factor influencing the shift toward equities is government policy on the bond market. According to market analysts, liquidity that once went into government debt instruments is now moving into equities. Government has taken a more aggressive stance in Treasury auctions, with some bids rejected outright if they specify interest rates. This has forced many investors to look for alternative investment options – leading them to the stock market.

“This change in the debt market has played a major role,” said one analyst. “Investors are no longer guaranteed favourable yields in the Treasury market so they are rebalancing into equities, especially those with strong fundamentals and reliable dividend payments.”

Market watchers argue that although the drop in trading volumes might raise liquidity concerns, the rise in value traded shows capital is being allocated more efficiently. This signals a maturing investment environment where fundamentals matter more than speculation.

The ongoing shift is also being supported by improved access to financial information and growing investor education. As institutional and retail investors alike become more valuation-conscious, fewer but more meaningful trades are beginning to shape the market’s direction.

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