Trade surplus surges in Q3 on gold exports, UAE leads as top buyer

By Joshua Worlasi AMLANU & Ebenezer Chike Adjei Njoku

The economy recorded a trade surplus of GH¢3.9billion in the third quarter of 2024, marking a stark improvement from a deficit of GH¢2.3billion in the same period last year.

This turnaround was driven by a surge in gold exports which constituted 62.1 percent of total exports, according to the Ghana Statistical Service’s (GSS) quarterly trade report.

In the period under consideration, total trade value reached GH¢145.7billion, comprising GH¢74.8billion in exports and  GH¢70.9billion in imports.

“This marks a significant improvement, with the turnaround of a GH¢2.3billion trade deficit in Q3 2023 to a GH¢3.9billion surplus in Q3 2024,” the report noted.

The gold standard

Gold led the export category by generating GH¢46.5billion – a notable increase from the comparable period in 2023. The commodity accounted for more than 60 percent of the country’s total export revenue.

Crude petroleum followed as the second-highest export with a contribution of GH¢11.6billion, while cocoa paste, manganese ore and tuna rounded out the top-five exports. Together, these five products accounted for 83.2 percent of total exports.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) emerged as Ghana’s gold exports’ leading destination in third quarter-2024, receiving 40.1 percent of the shipments.

Switzerland, which had long held the position as Ghana’s top gold buyer, fell to second place with a 30.1 percent share. South Africa, India and China were also key destinations.

The GSS highlighted the UAE’s growing importance, stating: “The UAE has emerged as a leading destination for Ghana’s gold exports, with its share growing from a modest 0.7 percent in Q3 2021 to 40.1 percent in Q3 2024, making it the top destination for Ghana’s gold exports”.

While export performance showed strong growth, imports remained robust – totalling GH¢70.9billion for the quarter. China continued to dominate as the nation’s largest import source, contributing GH¢17billion or 24 percent of total imports. Other notable import partners included the United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates, India and the Netherlands.

Mineral fuels and oils, particularly gas oil and motor spirit, were the top imported products, accounting for 22.3 percent of total imports. Machinery and electrical equipment followed, contributing 16.3 percent.

The GSS noted that: “In Q3 2024, the top-two import products – both within the category of mineral fuels and oils – totalled GH¢12.9billion, with gas oil leading at GH¢7billion”.

Asian partners

The document also highlighted Asia’s growing influence on the domestic import market. Nearly half of all imports (48.7 percent) originated from Asia, marking a 6.3 percentage point increase compared to third quarter-2023. The report added: “China is the leading source of imports, contributing GH¢17billion, which accounts for 24 percent of total imports”.

Export prices surged during the quarter, with the Unit Value Index (UVI) for exports increasing by 53.9 percent year-on-year compared to a 26.3 percent rise in import prices. This indicates that Ghana’s export commodities, particularly gold, experienced significant price increases.

“The year-on-year change in export prices for Q3 2024 was 53.9 percent, while import prices increased by 26.3 percent over the same period,” the GSS stated.

The real effect

Despite this nominal trade surplus, the report revealed a deficit in real terms. After adjusting for price changes, real export values were GH¢23billion while real imports stood at GH¢27.6billion – translating to a real trade deficit of GH¢4.6billion. This disparity highlights the impact of rising export prices on trade balances.

“In Q3 2024, real values indicated a trade deficit with exports valued at GH¢23billion and imports at GH?27.6billion. However, nominal values continued to reflect a trade surplus,” the GSS noted.

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