Here’s why NPP’s Bawumia conceded to president-elect John Mahama so early, looking at the numbers

The 2024 Ghanaian presidential election has taken a historic turn, with Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia conceding defeat to former President John Dramani Mahama earlier than many expected.

The speed of the concession underscores the undeniable lead Mahama established in the preliminary results.

A detailed analysis of the regional numbers offers a clear picture of why Bawumia’s path to victory became untenable so quickly.

The swing regions delivered for Mahama

Swing regions such as the Central, Western, and Greater Accra Regions played a pivotal role in the election. Historically, these regions have often determined the overall winner due to their unpredictability.

Despite the final results not being announced, the initial collations by the data room of Election Command Centre, Ghana’s most comprehensive election coverage, showed some key trends.

Central Region: Mahama outperformed expectations by winning a majority of constituencies. Central Region’s role as a bellwether was evident, as its votes decisively tipped towards the NDC.

Western Region: The NDC made significant inroads, flipping key constituencies that traditionally lean towards the NPP. Early results showed Mahama gaining over 52% of the vote.

Greater Accra Region: The largest voting bloc in the country showed overwhelming support for Mahama. The NDC’s strategic focus on urban centres and infrastructure promises resonated with voters, securing an estimated 55% of the region’s vote.

NDC’s stronghold regions were unshakeable

Mahama’s traditional base in the Volta, Oti, and Upper East Regions delivered staggering margins for the NDC:

Volta Region: Often referred to as the NDC’s “World Bank,” the region gave Mahama over 85% of its votes (this is according to about 21.03% reporting for the region at the time of writing). Bawumia’s attempts to chip away at this dominance were futile.

Oti Region: Similarly, Mahama commanded over 80% of the votes, solidifying his dominance in areas that have consistently supported the NDC.

Upper East Region: Mahama secured approximately 70% of the vote, emphasizing his continued popularity in the northern parts of the country.

The wide margins in these regions not only boosted Mahama’s national tally but also made it mathematically improbable for Bawumia to catch up.

Declining margins in NPP strongholds

The NPP’s strongholds, particularly in the Ashanti, Eastern, and Bono Regions, did not deliver the overwhelming margins Bawumia needed:

Ashanti Region: While Bawumia won the region, his margin of victory—about 65% compared to the usual 75% for the NPP —was significantly reduced. This decline was a critical blow to his chances.

Eastern Region: A region that has consistently favoured the NPP saw a tighter race, with Bawumia capturing only 58% of the vote. The erosion of support here highlighted the growing appeal of Mahama’s message.

Bono Region: The NDC made gains in this region, reducing Bawumia’s lead to below 55%, further weakening the NPP’s overall position.

The inability of NPP strongholds to produce the required “super margins” compounded Bawumia’s challenges.

Key regional shift in the North

Mahama’s strategic focus on northern Ghana, including his strong messaging on rural development and social interventions, paid off handsomely:

Northern Region: Mahama led with over 60% of the vote, consolidating his dominance in his home region.

North East Region: Although Bawumia’s home region, the results were closer than expected, with Mahama securing nearly 45% of the vote. This split in Bawumia’s backyard was symbolic of his broader struggles.

Savannah Region: Mahama achieved a commanding lead, garnering approximately 68% of the vote.

These results highlighted Mahama’s ability to not only energize his base but also appeal to neutral and undecided voters in the north.

Marginal constituencies and early projections pointed to a mathematical certainty

By the time 80% of results were declared, projections showed Mahama leading by over 900,000 votes, making a comeback for Bawumia statistically impossible. Marginal constituencies in regions like Bono East and Western North swung decisively toward Mahama, sealing the deal.

Truly, the numbers don’t lie

Dr. Bawumia’s early concession was not just a gesture of political maturity, but also a recognition of the numbers – something he is well-known to play with as an outspoken economist. Recognizing the electoral mathematics and the improbability of reversing the trend, Dr. Bawumia conceded early, exemplifying respect for the democratic process and the will of the Ghanaian people.

The combination of NDC’s strong performance in their base regions, significant gains in swing areas, and declining margins in NPP strongholds made Mahama’s victory inevitable. This election underscores the importance of voter turnout, regional dynamics, and strategic campaigning in determining electoral outcomes in Ghana – but more importantly showcases that when Ghanaians collectively say no, they say so resoundingly.

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