Fitch projects Cedi to regain value

London-based financial analysis firm Fitch Solutions has projected that the Cedi will regain its value by 9% by year-end against the US Dollar.

In an article titled “Sub-Saharan Africa Currency Round-Up: Greater Stability Ahead in Second Half of 2024,” it is predicted that external conditions will provide more support to Sub-Saharan African currencies in the coming quarters.

The London-based ratings agency expects the Ghanaian cedi to perform better in the second half of 2024. So far this year, the cedi has lost approximately 20% of its value against the US dollar, making it one of the worst-performing currencies globally.

Weak capital inflows due to subdued market sentiment and ongoing debt restructuring negotiations have contributed to this decline. However, the start of an economic recovery, with real GDP growth accelerating from 3.8% in Q4 2023 to 4.7% year-on-year in Q1 2024, has increased demand for foreign exchange.

Ghana’s international reserves remain low, covering just 2.5 months of imports as of March. Along with IMF agreements allowing the exchange rate to adjust to market conditions.

Fitch Solutions projects that the cedi will regain value by 9.0% by year-end, from the July 9, 2024, spot.

Fitch Solutions forecasts a 9.0% recovery in the cedi’s value by the end of the year, from the July 9, 2024 spot rate.

This optimistic outlook follows Ghana’s recent agreement with international bondholders to restructure $13 billion worth of external debt, expected to conclude by the end of September 2024.

“We expect the Ghanaian cedi to fare better in H2 [second-half of 2024]. In the year to date, the cedi has lost 19.2% of its value against the US dollar, positioning it among the worst performing currencies globally. Subdued market sentiment amid debt restructuring negotiations has kept capital inflows weak, while the start of an economic recovery – real GDP growth accelerated from 3.8% in Q4 [quarter 4] 2023 to 4.7% year-on-year in quarter 1 2024 – has increased demand for foreign exchange.”

“Furthermore, Ghana’s international reserves have remained low, covering just 2.5 months of imports in March. Combined with IMF  [International Monetary Fund] agreements to allow the exchange rate to adjust to market conditions, this has led to limited foreign exchange intervention by the Bank of Ghana in the year-to-date”, it added.

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