Fuel prices set to fall as cedi strengthens, global oil costs ease – COMAC

By Kizito CUDJOE

The Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC) expects fuel prices to drop marginally across the board in second half -October, driven by lower international oil prices and a stronger cedi.

According to COMAC’s latest price outlook, ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are projected to decline between 2 percent and 4 percent from October 16 to 31. Petrol prices are forecast to fall by 2.04 percent to 4.15 percent, diesel by 2.08 percent to 4.10 percent and LPG by 2.49 percent to 4.46 percent.

“The decline reflects a dip in global product prices and appreciation of the cedi, both of which are instrumental in driving the projected reductions,” COMAC said.

This comes as international crude oil benchmarks slipped 1.43 percent to about US$67.47 per barrel – down from US$68.45 as renewed tariff concerns and softer demand outlooks weighed on market sentiment. Global prices for refined products also tracked the downturn, with petrol, diesel and LPG falling by 4.54 percent, 3.94 percent and 3.43 percent respectively.

Domestically, the cedi strengthened to 12.25 per U.S. dollar from 12.40, marking a 1.21 percent gain. COMAC quoted that experts attribute the rebound to improved foreign exchange inflows from commodity exports and renewed investor confidence following Ghana’s fifth International Monetary Fund (IMF) review and enhanced market interventions by the central bank.

The expected reduction, if sustained, could ease inflationary pressures and offer some relief to transport operators and households already contending with high living costs.

The Chamber, in its analysis, noted that in the first three quarters of 2025, two major changes were introduced to taxes and levies in the petroleum sector.

“On 16th July 2025, the Energy Sector Shortfall and Debt Repayment Levy (ESSDRL) (1 cedi levy) was implemented under Act 1141 to address sector shortfalls and debts. Shortly after, the Energy Sector Levies (Amendment) (No. 2) Act, 2025 (Act 1145) took effect on 1st September 2025, increasing the ESSDRL on Marine Gas Oil (MGO–Local) and introducing two new levies – the Road Fund Levy and Energy Fund Levy, measures aimed at curbing smuggling and abuse linked to the MGO subsidy.”

However, it conceded that taxes remain a major source of government revenue, supporting national policies, budgets and public expenditures.

It added that statutory levies and margins provide regulators with the resources to fund their operations, develop infrastructure and implement sector projects. “As a result, petroleum products are subjected to multiple taxes, levies and margins before they reach the final consumer.”

Meanwhile, it stated that from January to August 2025 the consumption of petroleum products generally increased by 16.18 percent compared to the same period of the previous year.

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